The Mets picked up Rudy Lugo the other day and as a little distraction from the Santana excitement, lets take a look at Lugo' stats. Lugo is 28 years old, born in the Dominican Republic and attended high school in Brooklyn (so he is familiar with New York). He has pitched in 9 seasons in the Minor Leagues and during that time, in 2006 and 2007, he has appeared at the Major League level (but no years completely in the Major Leagues).

So far in his 102 games in the majors, none of them starts, he has posted a 4.39 ERA (over 133.1 IP). He has played in 220 games in the minors over 9 seasons and 535.2 IP, posting a 3.92 ERA. (Of those 220 games, he started 49 of them).

In 2006 he made his debut for Tampa Bay and during the 06 season, he had a 3.81 ERA, 64 G, 85.0 IP and 48 K's. If you look at that season alone, you see a reliable reliever who is average in terms of ERA but is a work horse in terms on innings pitched. Things didn't go so well for him in the 2007 season as he posted a 9.28 ERA over 11 games 10.2 innings for Tampa and then posted a 4.30 ERA over 27 games and 37.2 innings for Oakland. His minor league stats of a 1.84 ERA (14.2 IP) in the International League and a 0.45 (20.0 IP) in the Pacific League are worth noting.

He has pitched in Spring Training twice, each year pitching 11.0 innings and posting a 2.45 ERA and a 4.09 ERA.

All of this being said, his 5+ ERA last year should not be looked as such. I know I am an optimist but this could be a good pick up for the Mets. I think he would be useful to use in situations when the Mets have a big lead and they just need a pitcher to eat up innings to rest the starters and the bullpen. His amount of time that he pitches, especially in 2006,  makes him a nice asset. He is also 28 and has had some success in the majors so maybe he can find his own this year with the Mets and really develop. The bottom line is that you can never have enough arms on your staff and in you system.

Today marks the one year anniversary of the creation of this blog. I wanted to take some time out of the Santana news to thank all of the readers of this blog for an amazing year. I started keeping statistics for this blog in April 2007. Since then, there has been 3,983 unique hits and 5,428 total hits. The last three months in terms of hits have been something magical, in the last three months there have been 2,022 unique hits (811 in January alone) and 2,693 total hits (1,128 coming in January).

The idea for 213 Miles From Shea came in November 2006. I started one on Blogspot, but after one post, I stopped. I then saw in January 2007 the Mini-Metsblog feature on Metsblog, and thats when 213 Miles From Shea came to life. Since then, the posts on this website have really changed. The spelling has gotten better, the posts have gotten longer, and now they have analysis. I also have started a few series of posts that I try to keep up, including my favorite, Numbers Daily. At the end of December 2007, I started Get to Know a Prospect, to share information about lower level Mets and other NL East prospects. Since then, there have been 8 of these articles featuring 6 Mets players, 1 Braves player and 1 Nationals player.

In the year to come, I hope to continue to post frequently and I hope to get some conversations going on this website. If you have any suggestions or comments, please send them to eteich@umd.edu, I would love to hear them.

Lets Go Mets

Before all of the Santana news, MLB announced that this year will be the last year of the Hall of Fame Game in Cooperstown. The two teams that will be playing in this historic game are the Cubs and the Padres. The series has been played since 1940 and now also includes a home run derby at the start. As you probably guessed, the game is played at Double Day Field.

The reason that this is a big deal is because I feel that they are missing an obvious solution. The game is an exhibition game and should stay that way. There is nothing wrong with moving the game to March though. When major league clubs are playing games in Bejing and Tokyo for Spring Training, and now with the Civil Rights game in Memphis, there is nothing wrong with having two teams play a game in Cooperstown. The game already is mostly minor leaguers because major league clubs want their players to get rest.
Hopefully the administrative departments of baseball have had an idea similar to this and hopefully they will act on it. It is a shame to see a tradition like this go to waste. I know that many people do not pay attention to the game, but it brings in business for the town, and the game is generally sold out, so it is still viable.

By now you know the most amazing news of the offseason, that the 2-time Cy Young, 3-time All-Star, Johan Santana is on the New York Mets. I used the split feature on baseballreference.com (which is always fun to play around with) to find some statistics on Santana.

2007 stats:
15-13, 33 G, 219.0 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 9.66 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 7.52 H/9
All Time stats:
PHI- 1 G, 0-0, 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA
ATL- 2 G, 0-1, 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA (2.57 ERA in '07)
@ Shea- 2 G, 2-0, 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA (0.00 ERA in '07)

Career ERA by month (2007 ERA)
April/March         4.23 (3.60)
May                     4.05 (2.73)
June                     2.63 (1.98)
July                     3.67 (3.440
Aug                     2.44 (3.60)
Sept/Oct              2.75 (4.94)

Other 2007 ERA's
2.52 at home
3.75 away
2.60 open stadium
2.59 grass field

So what do all of these numbers mean? Well first off they mean excitement. Literally just like Wagner said, with Santana comes excitement and it should spread to other players. There isn't enough data to make predictions about his play against the Phillies, Braves and playing at Shea.
His ERA at home should be a big boost because the natural order of things is to be great at home and good on the road, (as opposed to the Mets who win on the road and are slightly above average at home). Furthermore, look at his monthly numbers last year, his ERA was better in the earlier months than it normally is (the inflation at the end has been attributed to him losing Luis Castillo in trade and not contending for the playoffs.)
Which brings me to another point outside the numbers, Castillo and Santana are on the same team again! This should cause some positive inflation in both of their numbers.
Yesterday was also the second busiest day on this website in terms of unique hits. There were 63 yesterday which nearly missed the high of 68 (the day after the 2007 series). Do you feel that in the air? It is pure excitement.

Bring on April.

In the last edition, we established the types of games the Mets will be playing in May 2008, this article will continue the analysis of the games in May:

Whenever you play a team that was in the world series, that series of games become a crucial set to win. It is just a natural way to gage where you are as a team. That being said, if the Rockies were not winning any games by this time in the season, then this set of games would lose its importance. If the Mets have to play against both of Dan Haren and Webb, then the three games against the Dbacks also become crucial games for the month.
To be the Best you have to beat the Best.
Basically what the last paragraph is distinguishing is that even though the Mets had 8 games vs Playoff teams in April, they were against two teams. In May, their 9 games vs Playoff teams will be against three teams. This also means that by this point in the season, the Mets have played 5 of the 8 playoff teams (all of the ones in the NL and the Yankees in the AL), so take that for what its worth.
Between playing the National League champ Rockies and playing the Yankees, the other thing that May has going for the Mets is a high level of energy of play. It is exciting to play a world series team. It is exciting to play in the Subway series. These are FUN games to play and hopefully that will show through the box score as the Mets come away with victories.

The Mets will be playing 8 teams in May rather than 6 in April, I really feel that this makes no difference but its a fun thing to point out about their schedule.

The next part in the preview series in May 2008. In May the Mets will play:
Washington 4 times
Atlanta 3 times
Florida 3 times
Arizona 3 times
LAD 6 times
Cinn. 3 times
Yankees 3 times
Colorado 3 times

In the breakdown, the Mets in May will play 10 games for the second month in a row against teams that were below .500 last year (in April they play 10, but technically its 11 because of March 31st). The Mer ts in total will play 28 games, 15 away and 13 home, 10 vs the east and 18 vs other division plays.
Even though the Mets play 18 games against teams above 500 last year and 9 against playoff teams last year, I feel that this will be a better a month than April because they will play more away and they only will play 10 games vs the East which removes pressure. Furthermore, only 3 of those games will be vs a pre-season contender for the East (the Braves).

Brant Rustich, a 23 year-old rhp prospect, was named at #6 on the November 2007 Baseball America Top 10 Mets Prospect List. He was also named the best fastball in the Mets system. Lets learn a little more about this pitcher.

He was selected in the 43rd round by the Twins in the draft in 2003, but he went to college so he went back into the draft and was selected again in the 13th round by the Indians in 2006. Then he went back to college for his senior year and was selected 2nd round by the 2007 draft. (The Baseball Cube thebaseballcube.com).

When looking at his college stats (UCLA), his ERA statistics are really interesting. His best year was his junior year and it was 1.50 over 6 games and 6.0 IP. His freshman year he had a 8.54 ERA over 26.1 IP, his sophomore year 5.23 ERA over 62.0 IP, and in his senior year his ERA was 6.67 over 29.2 IP.
Then, after his senior year (the same year 2007) he posted a 0.87 ERA in Kingsport over 10.1 IP and then a 2.13 ERA over 12.2 IP (In Brooklyn). In other words, Rustich is a pitcher who has pitched better in the minors so far than in college.
Another statistic to look at his K/9, which was above 7 his first two years in college, 15.0 his junior year and above 8 his senior year. In his time in the minors, his K/9 is 8.22, which is great. (21 K's through 23 IP)
He is young but in time he could become a nice piece of the bullpen (it seems that he pitches around an inning per game, his 23 IP in the minors have been over 25 games).

April was the best month for the Mets by far last year and looking at this year, April will be an important test for the team. I know that April games don't mean anything, but when the division is lost by one game, it is hard to say that a loss early in the season doesn't matter. That being said the breakdown of the Mets' 27 April games are as follows:

NL East:
FLA-2
ATL-6
PHI-6
WAS-5

NL Cent:
MIL-3
CHC-2
PIT-3

In April, the Mets will play 19 games against the East and 8 games against the Central. 17 of those 27 games will be against teams that finished last year above .500. 8 of those games will be against teams that made the playoffs last year.
Crucial games will be playing the Phillies home-because for some reason the Mets seem to play much better on the road. (Only 12 of their 27 games in April will be away). So, like any other season, the critical games will be vs the Braves and the Phils, only because they are rivals. If the Cubs are as good as they were in the latter half of last year, it will also be important to put them in their place. The East has to establish themselves as the best division in Baseball (right now they are not) and the Mets have to establish themselves as the best team in that division.

Last year the Mets had arguably the toughest Interleague schedule in the NL East. So lets compare the Interleague games for this upcoming season.

Mets:
6 vs Yanks
3 vs Rangers
3 vs Angels
3 vs Mariners

Phillies:
3 vs Blue Jays
3 vs Red Sox
3 vs Angels
3 vs Athletics
3 vs Rangers

Braves:
3 vs Athletics
3 vs Angels
3 vs Rangers
3 vs Mariners
3 vs Blue Jays

All three teams (I didn't include the Nationals and the Marlins in this edition, maybe I will in a later one if you all want me to) play the Rangers and the Angels, which for the NL East is a good thing. I feel that the Angels will be in first during Interleague play. Regarding the Rangers, if they are like they were last year, they will have a highly potent offense and no team in the East right now has exceptional pitching.
At least the Phillies face a tough AL East team. Last year the Mets had the Yanks and the Braves had the Sox, so thank God the Phils got the Sox this year, even if it is only for 3 games. Now it is slightly unfair that both the Braves and the Phils got Toronto (and Oakland), (which is due to the 6 games the Mets play against the Yanks).
This year, at least when looking at the teams on paper in preseason terms, interleague looks to be much more even this year.

            MLB is going global this spring. Baseball announced yesterday that the Padres and the Dodgers will be playing two games in Beijing, China (March 15 and 16). They will be playing in the stadium that will be used in the 2008 Olympics. The Red Sox and Athletics will be opening the season in a two game set in Tokyo. Each team will also have two Spring Training games against Japanese teams.

            Baseball announced in October that they will introduce a program called “Play Ball” in China that opens Baseball camps for Chinese children in Elementary schools. More information on that program can be found here: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071010&content_id=2259940&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

            In other international baseball news, the Israel Baseball League held tryouts for a second year in Miami on December 23^rd, 2007. According to their website, http://www.israelbaseballleague.com, mostly college players and former minor leagues participated in the tryouts. They will have two more this offseason in the Dominican Republic and LA. They also announced that they are moving the Petach Tikva Pioneers to Jerusalem this year (becoming the Jerusalem Lions).

            In case you are wondering, the first game next season is on June 22^nd, and it features Art Shamsky’s Modi’in Miracles against the Bet Shemesh Blue Sox.

In the week of January 14th, 2008, Sporting News, in their baseball section ranked each leagues starting rotation. Out of the 16, the Braves got ranked 8th, the Mets 9th, the Phillies 10th, Nationals 15th and the Marlins 16th.
Needless to say, they do not have much faith in the NL East's current rotations. That feeling is rightfully so at this point in time.

This says a few things. First, the inclusion of Santana, Blanton, or Bedard on either the Mets, Braves, or Philles would make them the best rotation in the divison (Luckily for us, the Mets are the only one with packages to do that, unless the Braves trade Jason Heyward which they would not do). That statement is obvious though.

Out of these three teams, the Mets have the best chance to be the best, or be the worst. Before we get to how they control their own destiny in this departement, lets look at the faults within the Braves, who are currently the top of the three. Their top pitchers are Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine. When looking at Glavine it is important to note that in each of his last three seasons, his ERA has ballooned. He was a 3.53, then a 3.82, and last year a 4.45. Although he is known for winning even when giving up runs (he pitches for the win, not the low ERA) that will have to stop with the Braves who do not have an offense as potent as the Mets. On top of Glavine, they are hoping for Hampton to finish out their rotation and we all know he is injury prone.

On the topic of the Mets, the focus will go back onto Maine and Perez who can make this team into a dominate pitching force or at the same time just self-destruct. Last year was promsising for both and if Maine can have a strong season, for the whole season (similar to how he started last year) and if Perez can keep throwing strikes, the Mets could very well be the best of this trio. The main weakness with Mets rotation is the fifth pticher right now because currently its a question mark, but time will tell what happens.

When looking at the Philles, they will go as far (in terms of starting pitching) as Hamels and Kendrick. Sporting News says that Hamels is "becoming a true ace" which is absolutly true. If Kendrick starts to pitch better (he was a rookie last year), this rotation could become a little more trouble than they were before. The nice thing (if you are a Phillies fan) is that you know with the setup man and closer situation in Philly now, and their highly potent offense, it doesnt matter if the starting rotation is great, they just need to be above average to good in order to win.

 

On another note entirely, I really like the Texas Ranger's new slogan "You can use some baseball"

I haven't done a Numbers Daily in a while (mainly because it generally relates to recently played games) so today I decided to dig up some numbers.

Ninth inning drama. Who can win it? Who do you want AB? Thats what I was looking for today, I looked at 9 current Mets and 2007 statistics in the 9th inning to see how they hit in those late innings. (Note: I could not separate data from close games in the ninth inning to blowouts) The percentages at the end are BA then OBP.

Reyes: 51 AB, 19 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .373, .448
Wright: 45 AB, 14 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .311, .411
Delgado: 41 AB, 11 H, 2 2B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, .268, .333
Beltran: 45 AB, 16 H, 4 2B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .356, .423
Alou: 27 AB, 7 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, .259, .259
Schneider: 36 AB, 7 H, 2 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .194, .293
Castillo: 45 AB, 15 H, 0 2B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .333, .348
Church: 36 AB, 8 H, 4 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .222, .300
Chavez: 16 AB, 5 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .313, .476

That is a nice, dense block of numbers, so lets break them down. In terms of base runners, no surprise here, Chavez and Reyes are your men. They both have an OBP over .440. Also interesting is that Reyes hit 2 of his 12 homers in the ninth inning. Which is slightly more than he should have on average. (Same can be said about his RBI's)
In terms of who you want when runners are on base, you have look at the big men of the lineup. Wright, Beltran and even Delgado each had over 10 RBI's in the ninth inning. It is nice to know that when push comes to shove you can rely on your big bats in the lineup to get the job done. Granted with the .268 average in the ninth inning, Delgado would be #3 on that list of three I would want with the game on the line.
This leads me to my next point. Reyes, Chavez, Delgado, Beltran, and Castillo all had BA's in the ninth inning that was above their actually BA. (With Wright, he hit .311 in the ninth which is below his season of .325, but if your hitting above .300, then you are doing something right anyway).

Jon Niese is one of those prospects who does not get his name thrown around a lot. I first heard of him at before the 2007 baseball season from Street and Smith's Baseball (2007). He was listed as number 5 on the Mets top 10 prospect list. He is also on the Baseball America top 10 prospect list that was created in November 2007. He is listed at #8 on that list.

In the Street and Smith's Baseball write up, they say, "Niese throws four pitches for strikes, including a solid splitter, but needs a better changeup and more command with his fastball. He went 11-11 with a 3.97 ERA and 9.6 K's a game at Class A." (Niese is a left handed pitcher). In his three seasons in the minors, he is 23-18 over 62 G, 60 GS. He has posted a 4.05 ERA over those 62 games. The past two seasons he has pitched over 130 innings and averages 8.5 K's a game. Last season was the first season that he had a K thru 9 below 8.75 (last year he had a 7.41)

The thing to remeber with his statistics is that he will only be 21 next season. He is building up stamina pitching more and more each year. His ability to strike people out is what intrigues me. We won't see him at Shea/Citi anytime soon but he could be an under the radar development for 2010/2011.

Believeniks! 2005: The Year We Wrote a Book About the Mets by Ivan Felt and Harris Conklin is not your average book about the Mets. The book is made up of a series of letters from each of the authors to each other during the 2005 season. When reading this book now, there is a definite feeling of nostalgia. 2005 feels like such a long time ago when reading this book. This was pre-Wagner with Looper "anchoring" the pen. Many of the games they write to each other about you will remember. I felt those days of being mad at Looper and proud of Pedro during those letters. There is a great glossary in the end that gives humorous descriptions of each of the players on the Mets.

Sample Selection (Felt and Conklin 270):
"Piazza, Mike (1998-2005): Straight catcher for the Mets and Dodgers"

The book starts to fall flat midway through because their letters start to turn more to their personal life and the novelty of reliving the 2005 season starts to die out. Believeniks is not a bad read, but it is also not a book to rush out and get either. Overall, it is entertaining but not a standout as a great baseball book.

Baseball is almost at that time of year again where everybody starts to make predictions for next year in terms of players and teams. At this point in the year, I am always ready for these predictions because they give numbers to dissect before Spring Training and the Regular season produces actual numbers.
Last year, Street and Smith's Baseball was one of the few magazines that attempted to predict actual numbers for certain players in the upcoming year. These are the numbers that they predicted for Mets players in 2007 with the actual numbers the Mets players produced:

Carlos Beltran: Ranked #4 OF
Projected: .288 BA, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 18 SB
Actual: .276 BA, 33 HR, 112 RBI, 23 SB
In 2006, Beltran hit .275. I think predicting that he would hit above .285 would have been a little too optimistic. Besides that, they hit his power numbers pretty much on the spot. When SB is concerned with the Mets, the actual will always be higher than the predicted because the Mets love to run the bases.

Jose Reyes: Ranked #1 SS
Proj: .294 BA, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 56 SB
Act: .280 BA, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 78 SB
If Reyes' second half was like his first, his BA would have been closer to the predicted and his RBI would probably be better. People knew before the season that he could steal 78 bases, but if they said that, they would have been shot down as too optimistic.

David Wright: Ranked #2 3B
Proj: .299 BA, 26 HR, 105 RBI, 19 SB
Act: .325 BA, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB
His BA is no surprise to Mets fans here. Projections of Wright were down because of his second half in 2006 where he struggled, he rebounded in a big way in 2007.

Carlos Delgado: Ranked #7 1B
Proj: .291 BA, 34 HR, 112 RBI, 0 SB
Act: .258 BA, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB
Rough year. This year is going to be better.

Paul LoDuca: Ranked #16 C
Proj: .298 BA, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB
Act: .272 BA, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 2 SB
When I first saw this projection, I was upset that they gave him a .298 BA, especially after a .318 in 06, but they were right that his contact would go down. Surprising though that he hit 9 jacks.

Brian Schneider: Ranked #25 C
Proj: .262 BA, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB
Act: .235 BA, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB
Threw him in here just because.

Luis Castillo: Ranked #9 2B
Proj: .299 BA, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 21 SB
Act: .301 BA, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB
For the most part, they really got this guy right.


I don't understand how they figure out these projections. How ever they do it, they are always fun to read, they spark discussion and are a good distraction until real numbers come out.
Getting closer to that 2008 Baseball Season.

The Phillies bullpen got a big boost this off-season with Brad Lidge as their new closer. This makes their 8-9 innings really strong especially against the Mets. Warning: these are not pretty statistics.

Tom Gordon, the closer for part of the year for the Phillies last year had excellent numbers against the Mets. He had 7 appearances against the Mets last year all of them were extremely effective:
April 11: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 SO, Save
August 27: 1.0 IP, 1 SO
August 29: 1.0 IP, 1 BB, Hold
August 30: 1.0 IP, Win
Sept 14: 1.1 IP, 3 SO, Win
Sept 15: 0.2 IP, 1 SO, Hold
Sept 16: 1.0 IP 1 SO
Total: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 8 SO, 1 BB, 0.00 ERA, 1 Save, 2 Holds, 2 Wins
Career: 21 G, 3-1, 7 saves, 21.2 IP, 2.08 ERA
Career at Shea: 12 G, 1-1, 4 saves, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA
Not one run scored against Flash Gordon this season at all. This is not a good situation because he is the setup man. The Mets cannot put themselves in a situation where they are down in the eighth because their chases of scoring their after are pretty low. To put this in perspective, Gordon's ERA was 4.73 for the season, and 0.00 against the Mets.

Brad Lidge only had one appearance against the Mets last year. It was on September 8th and he pitched a no hit, one strikeout inning. In his career, he has 14 G against the Mets posting a 1-1 record, 16.2 IP and a 2.70 ERA. At Shea Stadium, he has 7 Games, 1-0 record, 9.0 IP, and a 0.00 ERA. He is also very good against the Mets.

All in all, the Mets have to score early and often this year to beat the Phillies.


On a site note: Another website was added to the blog list on the side: Mets 4 Life. It is a great site that is updated very often (everyday) and has great analysis. Go check it out. If you have a site that you would want on the list to the side, please email me at eteich@umd.edu

When the Mets made the Carlos Delgado trade on November 24, 2005, they traded away their number 2 prospect, their number 4 prospect and an unlisted prospect who was noted as best strikezone discipline and fastest runner (all noted by Baseball America in November 2005). These prospects were Petit (#2), Mike Jacobs (#4), and Grant Psomas. Where are these guys now?

Petit was traded after 2006 from the Marlins to Diamondbacks for Jorge Julio. In 2006, he wen 1-1 over 15 G, 1 GS, 26.1 IP, and 9.57 ERA. In 2007, he went 3-4, over 14 G, 10 GS, 57.0 IP, and 4.58 ERA. Needless to say, he improved inbetween 2006 and 2007. He still isn't the dominating pitcher that we thought he would be by now. I remeber a lot of buzz around this guy during the 2005 season.

Mike Jacobs was an interesting fellow. In his first 100 AB with the Mets in 2005, he went on a HR craze that has heavy near the start of his career. During his firsts 100 AB, he hit 11 HR and posted a .310 BA. Since then with the Marlins he has been solid, but not crushing the ball at the pace he was with the Mets. Over the last two seasons he has posted a .262, .265 BA and 20 HR, 17 HR respectivily. He is a good player, but Delgado is still better (even with a.258 BA last year.)

Grant Psomas hasn't  broken the majors yet. In four minor league seasons, he has posted a .270 BA, .353 OBP, and .449 SLG. He was not on any Baseball America list for the Marlins in 2007.

As an interesting note: On the November 2005 Mets top ten prospect list by Baseball America, rank 6 and 7 were Carlos Gomez and Fmart. This whole article shows that although Fmart has tremendous upside, the trigger for Santana has to get pulled.

I wanted to step away from the Mets' farm system with today's prospect. Today I wanted to look into Jason Heyward, an OF prospect in the Atlanta Braves' farm system. He was selected in the first round of this year's draft and next season he will be 18-years old.

Baseball America is in love with this guy. They voted him best power hitter, and best strike zone discipline, and see him as the starting LF in 2010. That being said in their write-up about the Braves' farm system they talk about his power hitting. Finally, they voted him in the number 2 position of their top 10 prospects going into the 2008 season. (Rankings made public on 11/5/07)

I have not been able yet to locate any high school statistics on the web yet for Heyward but I was able to get some of his 2007 minor league statistics. He played 12 games this year, 8 in Rookie league (GCL) and 4 in the Danville Applacian Rookie league. Between these 12 games, he had 43 AB with 13 H, 5 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI and posting a .302 BA, .354 OBP, and a .488 SLG.

Although I have a lack of statistics, there seems to be a lot of buzz around this guy and I am interested in seeing what he does next year when he has a full season of minor league ball under his belt. He is young, which means that he could be a superstar or a flop, but he does have a lot of talent.

Earlier this month the Mets acquired Angel Pagan from the Cubs in exchange for Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers. Lets first look at Pagan vs Coles. Both are OF and they are both the same age. I posted a "Get to Know a Prospect" about Corey Coles earlier, so I will not spend to much time on him here but there are few stats that should be highlighted. Their slugging is just about that same in the minor leagues. Pagan has a .373 and Coles a .387. There batting average is where there is a big difference. Coles has an average at .306 while Pagan has one at .280.
The blaring difference between these two OF is that Pagan has played in the major leagues. He has had 318 AB over 148 games where he has posted a .255 BA, .306 OBP, and .415 SLG. In 2006, he played in 77 games and had .247 BA, .306 OBP, and.394 SLG and in 2007 over 71 games he had a .264 BA, .306 OBP, .439 SLG. In simplist terms, his stats improved 06 to 07. Another interesting note is that over his 2 seasons playing in the MLB, he hit 9 HR, which is half the amount he hit in 7 minor league seasons.

Although Corey Coles' minor league statistics are better, I would have to go right now and say that Pagan is the better OF only because he has time in the majors already. (I do realize that Coles could break the majors this year and have a fantastic year, anything is possible in baseball).

At the time of this article, MLB Spring Training Starts in 30 days, 23 Hours.

After the holidays that cooled down the hot stove from earlier this winter, the hot stove really picked up some heat this week. So far this week there have been a flurry of rumors surrounding Brian Roberts, Erik Bedard, Mark Kotsay, Johan Santana, Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. Let's try to break down some of these completed deals, still talking deals, dead deals, and never-actually-were-being-talked-about deals.

At the start of the week, it looked like the Brian Robert's to the Cubs was a done deal. Several websites were reporting the deal done and it seemed like the Orioles were going to trade Roberts for more pitching. Then articles started to rise about the disagreements between the Orioles and Cubs about which players would be involved in the trade. (mlbtraderumors.com reporting that they could have been over players like Rich Hill and Felix Pie). Being around Orioles fans, if their golden boy was to be traded, they wanted someone like Felix Pie only because he plays OF and the Orioles offense is dead (and that the Orioles only have a RF, no real LF or CF). Now according the mlbtraderumors.com, the trade seems just about dead.
The story about the Orioles this year and trades this year is that they keep getting pitchers, but they are not getting offesne. They did not have an offense last year, and they have promising young pitchers, so bringing in more pitchers has always been a bit of a question of why.

On that same note, the OF spot has been the issue with trading Bedard. Several times this winter, it looked like the Reds were making progress, but they couldn't get the deal done because they would not trade Jay Bruce, OF prospect. The buzz surronding the Orioles and Mariners has been the Mariners including Adam Jones, OF prospect, which is what the Orioles want. Mlbtraderumors.com made an interesting note today, Adam Jones was removed from winter league play today.

The Mark Kotsay trade is the next trade in the A's firesale this year. The Braves gave up pitcher Joey Devine for him. Devine will be 24 next year has played 25 games in the majors so far from the pen (pitching 19.7 IP). His notable statistical year was last year when he posted a 1.08 ERA for 10 G, 8.1 IP. When you look at the trade, it is real obvious that the A's were looking to get a young player with potential because they are still paying portions of Kotsay's contract. The Braves do gain a veteran OF who just had an off year last year. He is a carear .280 hitter.
I feel in the long run, the Athletics become winners from this trade. The Braves really didn't need a big bat because they still have Chipper, Francor, McCann has heavy hitters. I also see Kelly Johnson as a potential threat. This deal doesnt scare me, but I don't like any help the Braves get.

I am not going to spend too much time on Johan Santana here, but if the Mets are prepared to trade Fmart and Gomez for Johan, then the Angel Pagan trade makes a lot of sense as insurance for OF.

Old friend Mike Cameron signed with the Brewers recently, but not without some other buzz surronding him. There were reports that the Yankees were interested in Cameron. Buster Olney reported that the Yankees never seriously considered Mike. I am a little intrigued by Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus only because I don't understand it. The benefit I see from it is change of scenery could create better offensive results. We'll see if this trade goes through. (At the time I wrote this, mlb.com and mlbtraderumors.com was reporting it close, and espn was reporting it done).